Good morning and welcome to this week’s bulls and bears. This is a weekly thread where i look at happenings on the NGX and UJS equity space. If you have any questions, please feel free to share. 

Starting with the US 

Last week, the S&P  fell by 3.1%

The Nasdaq Composite declined 3.5%.

The Dow dropped 2.4%.

GAP numbers came in during the week

GAP is behind popular brands such as Old Navy and Banana Republic

Tiny player, but i like to keep an eye on US retail. ANything retail. General goods. Apparel.

The shares popped last Thuersday as Q4 2024 numbers came in better than expected.

• Earnings per share: 54 cents vs. 37 cents expected
• Revenue: $4.15 billion vs. $4.07 billion expected

Full year earnings rose minutely. Up 1% from $14.8 billion in FY 2024 to $15 billion in FY 2025

Managemnt was able to cut cost of sales and opex. 

That led to a 68.1% increase in net income (PAT).From $502 million in 2024 to $844 million in 2025.

I would like to see net income margins go up a bit more. FY 25 numbers are around 5.5%. So for every $100 in income, $5.5 was profit. That’s poor.

Target’s Q4 numbers beat analyst expecations, but it warned Q1 2025  numbers would be a bit soft.

Here’s how Target did compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $2.41 vs. $2.26 expected
• Revenue: $30.92 billion vs. $30.82 billion expected

The company’s shares fell nearly 5% in morning trading Tuesday.

For a better understanding of Qs and Ks, please listen to this podcast.

What’s happening this week?

Inflation numbers for February should be out.

Earnings wise, its a pretty quiet week.

Only earnings id be paying attention to are Adobe.

Lockheed Martin and other US stocks are on my rather following worries in Europe about a remote switch for the F35 jet.

European defence stocks rallied last week following news of plans to spend higher by Germany. So id include them in my radar for the week

Moving to the NGX

The All Share Index fell by 1.19%. The index measures the average performance of stocks on the exchange. 

Tantalizers led last week’s gainers. The stock appreciated by 36.32% opening at N1.90 and closing at N2.59 down 69 kobo. 

Eterna led the losers. The stock declined by 18.6%, opening at N42 and closing at N34.15, down N7.85

1,104,386,890 Ellah Lakes shares were on Wednesday, 5 March 2025, listed on the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). The additional shares  arose from Ellah Lakes P conversion of N3,092,283,294.81 debt to equity. 

Following the listing, the total issued and fully paid up shares of Ellah Lakes Plc has now increased from 2,753,786,788 to 3,858,173,678  shares

Ticker change

The change of name of FBN HOLDINGS PLC (the Company) to FIRST HOLDCO PLC has been implemented by Nigerian Exchange Limited. This is in line with the approval obtained from the shareholders of the Company at its Annual General Meeting held on 14 November 2024 and the receipt by the Company of a new certificate of incorporation from the Corporate Affairs Commission.

Please note that the Company’s trading symbol (ticker) has also been changed from FBNH to FIRSTHOLDCO. 

18,200,000,000 Fidelity Bank shares were on Monday, 3 March 2025, listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). 

The additional shares arose from Fidelity Bank Plc’s hybrid offer of Rights Issue of 3,200,000,000 shares at N9.25 per share (The Rights Issue was 100% subscribed) and Offer for Subscription of 15,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N9.75 per share (the Public Offer was 237.92% subscribed).

Following the listing, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of Fidelity Bank Plc has now increased from 32,012,211,331 to 50,212,211,331 shares.

Transcorp and Seplat audited FY 2024 earnings. 

Transcorp had a sharp increase in topline and bottomline growth.

Revenue increased by 107% from N196 billion in 2023 to N407.9 billion in 2024

Profit after tax increased by 189% from N32.4 billion in 2023 to N94 billion in 2024. 

The firm has proposed a final dividend of 60 kobo per share, bringing total payout for FY 2024 to 100 kobo.

The qualification date is March 27, 2025. Payment date is April 16, 2025.

Investors went too happy with that, so the stock dipped. 

I think people are better off holding the subsidiaries than the parent company, as its payout seems too low. Did a bit of napkin math. Hopefully, there is a call sometime this week so i can clear it up. 

Moving on to Seplat

Seplat figures are quoted in Naira and USD. Im focused on the USD numbers since the firm is largely focused on crude oil trading.

Revenue went up marginally by 5% from $1 billion in 2023 to $1.1 billion in 2024

Profit after tax moved up at a much better pace, from $123 million in 2023 to $144.7 million in 2024. 

The company has proposed a final dividend of $0.36 and a special dividend of $0.33.

Qualification date is the close of business on May 9, 2025.

The exchange rate for the Naira amounts payable will be determined by reference to the relevant exchange rates applicable to the US dollar on May 8, 2025, and will be communicated by the Company on May 9, 2025. 

Payment date will be on or around May 23, 2025. 

The company held an earnings call same day the numbers dropped. Earnings presentation is quite rich. You can get it from the IR section from the firm’s website

Most of the questions were around MPNU (now SPNU) and naturally so. That deal is a gamechanger for the firm. Bumped up its production sharply. 

Key points from me for the call were 

• SPNU staff are incredibly fired up. SPNU has about a 1000 staff. 

• Management may refinance its debt if the environment is favourable. That should create some elbow room to raise its dividend. 

• Capital markets day likely to hold in Q3 2025.

So what’s happening this week? 

We should get some more colour from Wema Bank on its rights issue.

We could have an earnings call by the Transcorp management.

BUA Cement will be holding an earnings call within the week.

On the macro scene, inflation numbers for the month of February should be out sometime on the 15th of this month or thereafter.