Telco giant MTN Nigeria last week hit an all time high of N550. Year to date, the stock is up a bit over 7%

Is there still room to run? Technicals and fundamentals have it as a yes. 

Fundamentals are green

2025 was a recovery year for MTN Nigeria, boosted by the tariff hike and a stable exchange rate. The company surprised investors with a N5 interim dividend.

Prior to that, the company was in a tough place.

Q3 2025 earnings per share was N16. I think that figure should inch up to somewhere between N17.5 to N18 a share. That would bring full year 2026 earnings per share to somewhere between N70 to N72 a share. 

That means the stock is trading at 7.8 times earnings, slightly below the average PE ratio of 8X on the NGX. High double digit growth imo warrants the stock trading at a premium to the average PE ratio. What should that premium be? 9X? Or 10X? I lean towards a 10X multiple. 

What do the technicals say? 

You cant be one of the biggest tax payers in the country and one of the most popular brands in the country, and not be in the bulls eye. 

Technical analysis

Technical analysis as of today has the stock as a buy as well. 

Are there risks? 

The biggest risk to MTN Nigeria is sudden regulatory or policy changes. That is impossible to model. Till we get there. 

A much smaller risk is Starlink. Both players are aiming for the niche broadband market in Nigeria: households that can afford to pay N30,000 to N100,000 monthly. At this price point, i think MTN Nigeria has an edge over Starlink. Entry level broadband is around N37,000. 

MTN Nigeria’s biggest strength is its user base. Very few companies in the country have a user base of over 80 million. I don’t see that edge being worn out anytime soon. If/should there be a big dip in its user base, that would be a red flag to watch. 

View: Accumulate

I have an accumulate view on this stock. Accumulate means to build a position gradually. At the moment, the stock is trading at N599. If/when a bloc 100k transaction occours, it is very likely this stock will hit N600.

If on the other hand, it pulls back to the N470 to N500 mark, that’s even better.

Please note that this is not investment or trading advice. Views are subject to change at any point in time, without a further write up.