FY 2024 was an outstanding year for NAHCO, despite a turbulent economy. 

Revenue rose by 88.5% from N28.3 billion in 2023 to N53.5 billion in 2024.

Profit after tax increased by 132% from N5.5 billion in 2023 to N12.8 billion in 2024.

The company has proposed a final dividend of N5.94 to be paid on the 23rd of May. Qualification date was the 9th of May 2025. 

This amounts to a payout ratio of 90.3% as the company made an earnings per share of N6.60 for the 2024 financial year.

Q1 started with a bang

Revenue and profit after tax both went up by over a 100% year on year. Revenue rose from N7.9 billion in 2024 to N17 billion in 2025

Profit after tax increased by 172% from N1.5 billion in 2024 to N4.3 billion in 2025. Earnings per share rose by 170% from N0.82 in 2024 to N2.22 in 2025.

The key driver behind the higher revenue was revenue from passenger handling.

2025 stock price movement 

Year to date (meaning from the first trading day of 2025 till date) the stock is up 52.81%. A few weeks ago, the stock had traded at a 52 week high of N84.85, before pulling back due to a markdown.

FY 25 forecast 

Annualizing, that is multiplying the first quarter by 4 wont be an accurate way of estimating FY 25 results. 

From the table below, one can see NAHCO took  credit losses in the last quarter of 2023.

A conservative estimate would be a 70% increase in topline and bottomline in FY 2025. That would give N90.5 billion in revenue and an earnings per share of just over N11. 

N11 earnings would mean that the stock is trading at 6.6 times earnings. In my view, the stock should ideally be trading at at least 8 times earnings.

That for me would be a target price of N88, meaning a potential upside of 20% from where the stock is currently trading at the moment. 

What of a dividend? 

One can then reasonably infer that the firm can easily pay a final dividend of at least N7 to N8. At current price, that would amount to a dividend yield of between 9.5% to 10.5%

In all that would be a potential return of between 29% to 30%

If the firm decides to raise capital, like it hinted at last year, then the forecasts would be updated in another post.

Potential price upside: 20%

Potential dividend yield (at a final dividend of N7 to N8): 9.5% to 10.5%

Please note. This is not investment advice.